Bitcoin has shattered its previous all-time high, soaring to $109,400 following a temporary trade truce between the United States and China. The crypto market is surging with renewed investor confidence, as analysts debate what this milestone means for Bitcoin’s future. Could this be the start of the next major bull run?
Historic Surge as Bitcoin Hits $109K After Trade Deal
On May 21, Bitcoin (BTC) reached a record high of $109,400, according to TradingView data — marking a 26% increase over the past month. The surge came just nine days after the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day trade deal, reducing import tariffs to 10% and easing global economic tensions.
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This short-term agreement brought significant relief to markets that were rattled by months of geopolitical uncertainty. Investors reacted swiftly, pushing Bitcoin to new heights.
According to Aurelie Barthere, principal analyst at crypto intelligence firm Nansen, the reduced risk of a “sudden re-escalation” in trade disputes gave both traditional and crypto investors a clear signal to re-enter the market. Bitcoin appears to have been the biggest beneficiary.
From Capitulation to Celebration
The rally is even more remarkable considering where Bitcoin stood just weeks ago. On April 7, BTC dropped to a year-to-date low of $74,434 — just five days after President Trump announced new import tariffs. The shockwave led to the largest single-day loss on the S&P 500, wiping over $5 trillion in value.
Bitcoin began its recovery on April 9, coinciding with Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day,” which signaled a shift toward easing tensions. Analysts marked this day as the turning point for investor sentiment.
Crypto strategist Michaël van de Poppe noted that April 9 represented the “climax of uncertainty.” Since then, the market has steadily regained its footing, with Bitcoin leading the charge.
Bitcoin Evolves into a High-Conviction Asset
As May began, Bitcoin entered what Bitfinex’s head of derivatives Jag Kooner described as a “near-flawless setup.” This was fueled by a rare convergence of easing geopolitical tensions, improved regulatory sentiment, and positive macroeconomic momentum.
One key factor was the restart of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. In a May 19 post on X, former President Donald Trump claimed both nations would “immediately begin talks for a ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the war,” after a two-hour call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Kooner emphasized a unique dynamic at play: “Instead of a capital flight away from Bitcoin — as typically happens when risk eases — we’re seeing capital rotate into BTC and high-beta tech.” According to him, this marks a shift toward risk-on behavior in a market still flush with liquidity.
He added: “Bitcoin is no longer just a hedge against fear. It’s becoming a high-conviction risk asset during times of macro stability.”
What’s Next: Could BTC Hit $120K or Beyond?
Despite the optimism, Kooner urged caution. For Bitcoin to maintain upward momentum toward $114,000 or even $120,000, funding rates must stay neutral and open interest should remain stable. A single macro or regulatory spark could trigger the next leg of the rally.
Others are even more bullish. Jamie Coutts, head crypto analyst at Real Vision, predicts Bitcoin could exceed $130,000 by the end of 2025. His thesis centers on the growing global money supply and the declining value of fiat currencies.
According to Coutts, continued fiat debasement is fueling institutional and retail demand for Bitcoin as a hedge. “With monetary expansion accelerating, Bitcoin could easily top $132,000 by year’s end,” he said.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s breakout to a new all-time high of $109,400 is more than just a technical event. It reflects renewed investor confidence, improving geopolitical conditions, and the evolution of BTC as a mature financial asset. The key question now: is this the beginning of a sustained bull market — or a temporary peak?
