Bitcoin’s Correlation with NASDAQ-100 Remains Strong
Bitcoin (BTC) still closely follows the NASDAQ-100 index, especially when prices drop. Crypto firm Wintermute said BTC moves sharply down when equities sell off. But when equities rise, Bitcoin’s gains are smaller. This shows Bitcoin reacts more to losses in the stock market than to gains.
The correlation between Bitcoin and NASDAQ is strong, with a value of 0.8. However, the difference in their performance, called the performance skew, has mostly been negative. Wintermute said this means Bitcoin behaves like a high-risk asset only when prices fall.
Shift in Market Attention in 2025
Wintermute explained that in 2025, investors have focused more on stocks than crypto. The attention usually given to new crypto projects and retail buyers has shifted toward equities. The NASDAQ-100 has seen gains as it attracted more US Dollar risk appetite recently.
Since the Federal Reserve eased interest rates on September 17, Bitcoin lost 18%, while the NASDAQ gained 3.7%. This shows Bitcoin acts like a high-risk asset linked to bigger market trends, but it has less upside potential on good days.
Market Factors Affecting Bitcoin’s Performance
- Lower inflows to Bitcoin ETFs
- Stablecoin issuance has stopped growing
- Market depth has become thinner
These factors have increased Bitcoin’s negative performance skew. Wintermute said such negative skew usually happens during bear markets and market lows. Despite this, Bitcoin still trades near all-time highs. The firm believes current patterns show Bitcoin investors may be tired.
Bitcoin recently dropped below the $100,000 mark. It is trading around $95,000, down 3.5% in the last 24 hours as of Friday.
