Bitcoin Price Drops as Long-Term Holders Sell
Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped below $104,000 on Tuesday, continuing its decline from Monday. This fall is linked to long-term Bitcoin holders selling their coins. Data shows Owen Gunden sent 1,289 BTC to Kraken on Tuesday. Another holder, known as 1011short, moved 13,000 BTC to exchanges like Kraken, Binance, Coinbase, and Hyperliquid since October 1. Gunden’s total deposits now reach 3,265 BTC since October 21. These movements suggest early holders are taking profits and adding selling pressure.
QCP Capital analyst said on Monday that the sell-offs by long-term holders explain much of Bitcoin’s recent price moves. These sales are happening despite good market conditions for stocks and other risk assets. The analyst noted Bitcoin has remained strong, with the market absorbing around 405,000 BTC in legacy supply over the past month without falling below $100,000. It is unclear if this marks the start of a crypto winter, but long-term holders are realizing gains while institutional support remains steady.
Institutional Demand for Bitcoin Weakens
Institutional demand for Bitcoin is falling. Spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the US saw outflows of $186.51 million on Monday. These outflows have continued daily since October 29. Persistent outflows could push Bitcoin’s price lower, showing less institutional confidence.
On-chain data also shows low demand for Bitcoin futures by US investors. The CME Futures annualized basis dropped to 1.98%, its lowest in over two years. This means fewer investors want to hold Bitcoin futures expiring in six months or more, even as spot prices rose from $80,000 to $120,000 recently.
Despite this, Strategy, a major Bitcoin holder, bought 397 BTC on Monday. The firm now holds 641,205 BTC, showing its long-term confidence in Bitcoin despite short-term weakness.
Bitcoin Price Forecast and Technical Signals
Bitcoin faced resistance at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level near $115,137 last week. The price dropped 3.51% after rejection there, then fell another 3.58% on Monday. On Tuesday, BTC traded below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $106,453.
If Bitcoin closes below $106,453 on a daily basis, the price could fall further toward the October 10 low near $102,000. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 35, showing increasing bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also signaled a sell on Monday, indicating a downward trend.
If Bitcoin recovers, it could move up toward the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $112,152.
