Bitcoin Holds Near $110,600 Amid Global Tensions
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading close to $110,600 on Thursday. It is testing an important upward trendline support. Rising geopolitical tensions and renewed US-China trade conflicts are hurting investor confidence. This keeps risk appetite low. A report from Copper Research says Bitcoin might drop to $100,000 before moving higher again.
Geopolitical and Trade Issues Weigh on Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s price recovery has slowed this week. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have increased. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Russia about consequences if the war continues. US President Donald Trump also considered sending longer-range missiles to Ukraine.
US-China trade tensions worsened after both countries imposed new port fees. Trump mentioned possibly ending cooking oil trade with China. He called the situation an all-out trade war. However, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested pausing import duties if China stops export controls on rare-earth elements.
These conflicts create uncertainty. Investors avoid risky assets like Bitcoin during such times.
Bitcoin May Test $100,000 Before Rising
Copper Research reported that Bitcoin could revisit $100,000 this month. This level matches its long-term support, the 52-week average. The report said a strong break below this line would be a major change, similar to shifts in 2014, 2018, and 2022. Such a shift is unlikely before 2026.
Fadi Aboualfa, Head of Research at Copper, told FXStreet that Bitcoin’s recent moves fit long-term trends. He said a drop to $100,000 would be a healthy test, not a sign of trouble. Strong ETF demand and technical signals support this view.
Funding Rates Drop to 2022 Levels, Signaling Market Stress
Despite recent challenges, some optimism appears. Futures market stress hit extremes as funding rates fell to levels last seen during the 2022 FTX collapse. Annualized funding turned sharply negative, meaning traders paid to hold short positions after bullish bets were wiped out.
This shift shows traders are quickly reducing risk. Historically, such funding resets mark peak fear and the end of heavy deleveraging. This often leads to a healthier recovery later.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: Indicators Suggest Further Correction
Bitcoin faced resistance at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $115,154 on Tuesday. It then dropped almost 4% the next day. On Thursday, BTC trades near $110,600, close to an ascending trendline.
If Bitcoin falls below this trendline, it could drop to daily support around $107,245. This level is near the 200-day EMA at $108,084. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40 shows growing bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also indicates a bearish trend.
If Bitcoin recovers, it may rise back toward the 50-day EMA at $115,154.
