Bitcoin to Reach New High in 2026, Breaking Four-Year Cycle
Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to hit a new all-time high in 2026, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan. This prediction breaks the crypto’s usual four-year cycle pattern. Traditionally, Bitcoin has three strong years followed by a pullback year. Based on this, 2026 should be a pullback year.
However, Hougan says the old cycle drivers are weaker now. New market forces are changing Bitcoin’s behavior. “The forces that drove four-year cycles — halving events, interest rate cycles, and crypto booms and busts — are much weaker,” Hougan wrote.
Institutional Investment to Boost Bitcoin
Hougan expects more institutional money to enter crypto in 2026. This trend started after Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) got approved. Large platforms like Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch will begin allocating funds to Bitcoin ETFs. Bank of America recently allowed its advisers to recommend Bitcoin ETFs. This could bring some of the bank’s $3.5 trillion client assets into crypto.
Grayscale, a top asset manager, agrees with Bitwise’s view. It predicts Bitcoin will reach new highs in the first half of 2026. Grayscale calls this the “institutional era.” The firm points to rising public debt and clearer regulations as reasons for increased demand.
Hougan also notes that interest rates now favor crypto. The US Federal Reserve cut rates three times in 2025. More rate cuts are expected in 2026, unlike the rate hikes in 2018 and 2022 that hurt digital assets.
Bitcoin’s Volatility and Stock Correlation Set to Fall
Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped steadily in the last decade. In 2025, Bitcoin was less volatile than Nvidia shares. Bitwise expects this trend to continue next year.
Hougan predicts Bitcoin’s link to stocks will weaken in 2026. Crypto’s growing regulation and institutional use should lift prices even if stock markets struggle. Bitcoin stayed closely linked to the NASDAQ-100 in 2025, especially during price drops. But recent data shows Bitcoin’s price only followed stocks during market declines.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades near $87,000, down about 1% on Wednesday.
