BitMEX Co-Founder Declares Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Dead
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has stated that Bitcoin’s well-known four-year cycle is over. In a recent blog post, he said this shift is caused by global monetary and economic factors, not halving events or institutional investments.
In his Thursday post titled “Long Live the King!”, Hayes wrote, “As the four-year anniversary of this fourth cycle is upon us, traders wish to apply the historical pattern and forecast an end to this bull run.” He added, “The four-year pattern worked in the past, but it is no longer applicable and will fail this time.”
Hayes explained that Bitcoin’s price depends on the supply and flow of money, mainly the US dollar and Chinese yuan. He said past bull markets ended when monetary conditions tightened, not based on timing. Therefore, the current market uptrend will continue as long as global liquidity grows.
Liquidity Drives Bitcoin’s Price
Hayes highlighted that the current cycle is very different from previous ones. The US Treasury has injected about $2.5 trillion into markets via the Fed’s Reverse Repo program. Additionally, former President Donald Trump’s policies aimed at “running it hot” with easier monetary rules support risk assets like Bitcoin.
Plans to ease bank regulations and increase lending are also in progress. The US Federal Reserve has started cutting interest rates again, despite inflation still being above target. Traders expect another rate cut in October and possibly one more in December. Lower rates could continue to boost Bitcoin’s price.
Hayes noted that China is less aggressive with stimulus but focuses on ending deflation, which suggests it will not reduce liquidity. He said, “Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future.”
Bitcoin Market Data and Outlook
Bitcoin currently trades around $122,036 with a daily volume exceeding $61 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. Data from CryptoQuant shows Binance’s open interest dropped 7.9% since October 6 to $13.88 billion. This decline indicates reduced leverage as traders take profits after recent gains.
Hayes believes Bitcoin’s future price movements will follow global money flows, not the traditional four-year cycle. As long as central banks keep injecting cash, Bitcoin’s upward trend may continue.
