Gemini Seeks to Launch Regulated Prediction Market
Gemini Space Station Inc., the parent of Gemini cryptocurrency exchange, plans to launch a federally regulated prediction market. This move aims to diversify revenue and address financial challenges faced by the company.
In May, Gemini filed an application with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate a new derivatives exchange named “Gemini Titan.” According to CFTC filings, Gemini Titan would operate as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) offering regulated event contracts.
Bloomberg reported on November 5, 2025, that Gemini is actively working to launch these products soon. The company intends to offer services directly, without third-party partners.
If approved, Gemini Titan would compete with Kalshi, the only active federally regulated event market, and Polymarket, which is preparing to reopen to U.S. users.
Prediction Markets See Record Growth
The filing comes amid renewed interest in event-based trading. Prediction markets hit a weekly volume record of $2 billion in late October 2025.
- Kalshi captured 62% of on-chain prediction market volume from September 11–17, with over $500 million in weekly trades.
- Polymarket recorded $430 million in volume and $164 million in open interest during the same period.
Gemini previously submitted a comment letter to the CFTC in August 2024. The letter expressed concerns that proposed rules on event contracts might limit the growth of prediction markets.
Should Gemini Titan be approved, it must comply with the Commodity Exchange Act. This includes meeting 23 core principles on market surveillance, financial integrity, governance, and system safeguards.
Challenges After IPO and Market Competition
Gemini’s push into prediction markets follows financial difficulties after its September 2025 IPO. Since listing, Gemini’s shares have fallen about 49%, closing at $16.29 on November 5. The stock opened at $32 on its first trading day.
The company reported a net loss of $282 million in the first half of 2025, almost double its $158 million loss for all of 2024. Revenue fell to $68.6 million in H1 2025 from $74.3 million in the same period the previous year.
More than 80% of Gemini’s trading volume now comes from institutional clients. This limits its exposure to retail users, where Coinbase and Robinhood remain industry leaders.
Gemini’s new derivatives platform aims to help the firm compete and grow in the evolving crypto market. However, CFTC approval can take months or longer. Ongoing U.S. government shutdowns may cause further delays.
Other companies have partnered with licensed prediction platforms to speed up market entry. For example, Robinhood offers event contracts through Kalshi, avoiding lengthy approval processes.
The competition is intensifying. Besides Kalshi and Polymarket, new entrants like Trump Media and Technology Group’s Truth Predict plan to launch CFTC-regulated prediction markets. Truth Predict will integrate with Crypto.com and start initial testing soon.
Traditional finance firms such as CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange have also explored event contracts. Coinbase has disclosed plans to enter the prediction market space as part of its expansion strategy.
Despite growth, regulatory challenges remain. State gaming regulators are pushing back against federal oversight of prediction markets, causing legal uncertainty about their status as gambling or financial products.
Gemini will seek to leverage its CFTC-regulated platform to build sustainable revenue beyond its core crypto exchange. The company raised $425 million in its IPO, one of the largest for a digital asset firm in 2025. Approval of Gemini Titan would signal a significant expansion into a regulated market combining crypto innovation with derivatives trading.
However, regulatory processes may take time, and the firm faces fierce competition in a fast-changing environment.
