Investigation Launched Over Polymarket Nobel Peace Prize Bets
Norwegian officials are investigating a possible leak after unusual bets appeared on Polymarket. The bets predicted the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner before the official announcement.
The inquiry began when bets on Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado surged hours before her name was revealed in Oslo on October 10, 2025, according to Bloomberg.
The Nobel Institute confirmed the investigation after noticing the spike. “We’re looking into it,” said Erik Aasheim, spokesman for the Nobel Institute, which manages the Peace Prize for the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Details of the Betting Activity
Data from Polymarket showed bets on Machado rising just after midnight on October 9, Norwegian time. By the official announcement at 11 a.m. on October 10, early bettors had earned tens of thousands of dollars.
- Three accounts betting mainly on Machado reportedly earned about $90,000.
- One trader, known as “6741,” opened a new account before betting and netted around $53,500, according to crypto outlet Protos.
- This trader also placed smaller bets on Russian activist Yulia Navalnaya, environmentalist Greta Thunberg, and WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange.
The Nobel Committee made its final decision on October 6, according to Norwegian media. Machado was notified shortly after the public announcement. She won for her efforts promoting democracy and opposing President Nicolás Maduro’s rule in Venezuela.
Polymarket and Previous Concerns
Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction platform where users bet on real events using cryptocurrency. It recently secured a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.
Earlier in 2025, Polymarket was approved to re-enter the U.S. market after resolving issues with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
This is not the first time Polymarket faced scrutiny over possible information leaks. Similar concerns arose when sudden trades seemed to reflect insider knowledge.
The current investigation aims to find out if someone connected to the Nobel process shared confidential information before the announcement.
