Prediction Markets Bet on SBF Pardon by Trump
Prediction market traders are betting on a possible pardon for Sam Bankman-Fried. This follows President Donald Trump’s recent clemency for Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao.
Over $6.6 million has been wagered on Trump’s potential pardons in 2025. Around $356,045 was placed on Bankman-Fried receiving a pardon. Another market shows a 10% chance of his release from custody in 2025. This increase reflects optimism about Trump’s possible clemency.
Bankman-Fried is serving a 25-year sentence for fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering. He was convicted of misusing billions of dollars from customers through his failed exchange, FTX. His lawyers have filed an appeal, but experts see little chance of progress this year. A pardon could be the only way for him to gain freedom before January.
Experts Doubt Bankman-Fried Will Be Pardoned
The crypto community is divided on whether Bankman-Fried deserves a pardon. Many compare his 25-year sentence to CZ’s four-month sentence. CZ was convicted of anti-money-laundering violations but not accused of stealing user funds.
Crypto lawyer Jake Chervinsky said he would be “truly shocked” if Trump pardoned Bankman-Fried. He pointed out Bankman-Fried was a “Democratic mega-donor” before FTX collapsed in November 2022. Chervinsky said, “Not a single serious person wants this.”
Trump Defends Pardon for Binance Founder
Trump defended his pardon of CZ. He said he was told Zhao’s actions were “not even a crime.” Trump also claimed CZ was “persecuted by the Biden administration.”
