JPMorgan Predicts Low Inflows for Solana Spot ETFs
Solana (SOL) dropped 5% on Thursday after JPMorgan analysts forecast limited inflows for spot Solana ETFs. They expect these funds to attract about $1.5 billion in their first year.
JPMorgan’s team, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, said Solana ETFs will likely see much smaller inflows than Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. The bank compared Solana’s expected inflows to Ethereum’s, estimating Solana will get about one-seventh of Ethereum’s ETF inflows.
This estimate is based on early data from the REX Osprey Solana Staking ETF (SSK), which raised nearly $350 million after launch. In contrast, spot Ether ETFs attracted around $2.3 billion in their first three months.
The analysts wrote, “Applying this 1/7th ratio to Ethereum’s first year net inflows of $9.6 billion suggests Solana ETFs could see around $1.5 billion in net inflows during their first year.”
Reasons for Lower Inflows
- Declining on-chain activity and memecoin trading on Solana
- Investor fatigue from many recent product launches
- Competition from diversified crypto index funds like the S&P Dow Jones Digital Markets 50
JPMorgan also noted that Grayscale’s Solana Trust (GSOL) premium to net asset value fell from over 750% last year to just above zero. This suggests that optimism about ETF approvals is already priced in.
The report said the SEC is expected to decide on several altcoin ETF applications, including Solana, in October. The presence of a CME futures contract for Solana strengthens the chances of approval.
In September, the SEC approved generic listing standards for digital asset ETFs. This allows faster issuance of crypto ETFs. The SEC recently asked issuers to withdraw some spot Solana ETF filings due to these new standards. This move sparked speculation about near-term approvals.
Solana Price Outlook: Testing Key Support Levels
SOL fell 5% amid a broader crypto market decline. It is testing the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level near $219 and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
If buyers fail to hold $219, SOL might find support at an ascending trendline from June 22. Further support could come near the 50% Fibonacci level at $195, which aligns with the 100-day SMA.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator are dropping and nearing neutral levels. This signals weakening bullish momentum for SOL.
